Coming out of a tumultuous 2025, I see five huge trends that are transforming the business of geek culture. Some are impacting the entire economy, others are specific to the comics and game businesses, but all are big enough to shape the future across categories. Starting from the broadest trends, here’s what I see:
Loss of Confidence in Government Policy
For over 50 years, government policy in the U.S. has been consistently expanding the role of global trade in the economy. This created an environment with global supply chains for products sold in the U.S. and global markets for products created here (whether manufactured here or not). U.S. game companies could design and develop games, manufacture them in factories in other countries, and sell them around the world. U.S. comic companies could use foreign manufacturing to keep prices on high-quality graphic novels and comic collections low and make their products more attractive to consumers here and elsewhere. U.S. retailers in both categories could count on the smooth flow of products sourced from other countries to their shelves.
The erratic U.S. tariff policy over the past year has changed all that, not just by adding the costs of tariffs to products manufactured overseas and making other countries less likely to buy American goods, but by shaking business confidence in their ability to anticipate the near- and longer-term future.
A recent paper by five American and European economists, published by the National Bureau of Economic Research last month and reported by the New York Times, looked at the impact of Brexit, which sharply reduced trade with other countries, on the British economy. It found that economic output was six to eight percent lower than it would have been without leaving the European Union, an impact bigger than the Great Recession. Those impacts accrued gradually from many decisions businesses made in the years since the 2016 Brexit. Most importantly, based on surveys of businesses, the study found that it wasn’t the changes in the rules of trade that caused the biggest impact, it was the confusion over what the future would look like. While there are a lot of differences between the British and U.S. economies, I think the pernicious effects of a loss of confidence in government policy will have long-term negative impacts on the business of geek culture (along with a lot of other businesses).
We Live in a Gambling Society
I started talking about this in my White Paper presentations this year, and as the year draws to a close our gambling society is a major phenomenon. American consumers are increasingly taking chances on big payoffs based mostly on chance, a trend that can be seen in meme stocks, cryptocurrencies, online sports betting, and in the business of geek culture in blind packs for comics, TCGs, figures, dice, and other accessories.
The explosion of the TCG business this year has been powered to some degree by consumers looking for hot cards or fast increases in price, but we’re also hearing that some of those speculators are evolving into players, a more sustainable kind of consumption.
Then this fall I was surprised to hear from retailers that some Pokemon TCG customers that were used to ripping packs to find valuable cards had started buying blind bag comics for the same experience. It was exciting to hear that some of those customers read the comics and continued to buy the series, a kind of parallel to the trend we’re seeing in games.
The blind box figure business has been going nuts, with Popmart the flavor of the year, but plenty of others also in the game.
And now we’ve got blind packs of dice, which I would not have predicted could be a collectible product with a rarity scheme.
Overall, the growth of all kinds of gambling has been a positive trend for both games and now comics as well, but I have a hard time seeing how this ends well. Historically, when the growth in the number of consumers chasing a collectible slows or reverses, aftermarket prices drop, which drives down demand further, leading to a spiral that’s tough to reverse. Does the growth in the number of players and readers mean this time is different? And what are the implications of the broader acceptance and popularity of gambling in society; is there now a permanent uptick in the percentage of consumers that take chances with their purchases? This is the most volatile of the trends I’m spotlighting and the one with the biggest potential to cause big moves in either direction.
Loss of Confidence in Distribution
This trend started during Covid when Diamond Comic Distributors shut down for an extended period and game distributors struggled to manage product flow under difficult circumstances. The bankruptcy of Diamond Comic Distributors (and subsidiary Alliance Game Distributors) rapidly expanded this loss of confidence in 2025, and it’s having all kinds of impacts across product categories.
There’s definitely more crowdfunding happening, both as a way to manage cash flow given the large unpaid bills and frozen inventory affecting many publishers, and as a way to build more direct connections with consumers and retailers. I also see more publishers turning to other direct-to-consumer (including digital) and direct-to-retailer strategies as a way to shorten the supply chain. And retailers are trying to shorten the supply chains from their end by buying more products directly from publishers.
It’s going to take a long time (if ever) for the business of geek culture to once again have the same confidence in distribution they had in 2019, and 2025 has turbocharged that trend.
Independent Retail Is Flourishing
If it was just comic stores or just game stores that were growing, I’d be looking at the products and assuming that hits were the big factor driving store traffic. But then I saw this article in Fast Company detailing the growth of independent bookstores, a channel that’s doing well despite limited growth in the overall category.
The article uses American Booksellers Association numbers to support the thesis in the headline, “Indie Bookstores Are Making a Shocking, Triumphant Comeback,” citing 70% growth in the number of bookstores in the U.S. since 2020, with 422 new stores opening in 2025 alone.
Coming out of Covid, I was definitely hearing from retailers that there was pent-up demand for the kinds of interaction consumers could find in comic and game stores, and now hearing that indie bookstores are having the same experience helps build a picture of a consumer that’s looking for real human contact at retail. Comic and game stores are excellent at building consumer connections with the owners, staff, and other fans, and it’s great to see that the strategy is resonating with consumers that are sick of being steered by faceless algorithms. With the progressive enshittification of online retail and increasingly sophisticated strategies being employed by comic and game stores to build communities in their stores, it’s hard to see how this trend reverses any time soon. AI is certainly not going to make online retail more personable.
To me, this is the most exciting of the five huge trends I’m spotlighting in this column.
Licensing is Exploding
Like the other trends I’ve identified in this column, the growth of licensing didn’t start in 2025 but seems to now be at a new level. On the game side, the fact that a Magic: The Gathering set tied to a video game license was the largest Magic set in history (see “Record ‘Magic’ Sales”) would have been unthinkable until recently. And it was followed in short order by two other licensed Magic sets. There are now at least four anthology TCGs (our term for TCGs that apply a rotating roster of licensed properties across the same game engine): UVS, Weiss Schwarz, Union Arena, and Overpower.
In comics, Marvel and DC are crossing over their characters in multiple releases, Godzilla is crossing over with seemingly everybody, and the Energon Universe, created by Skybound from properties licensed by Hasbro, is a publishing phenomenon with multiple hit titles and lots of new readers.
The strategy appears to be bringing in new consumers for games and comics that wouldn’t be involved in those hobbies without the licenses, manifesting another macro trend that’s a net positive for the business of geek culture.
What Does this Mean for 2026?
The business of geek culture is going to end up in a different place at the end of 2026, with these five huge trends, all foundational to the business, having a major impact. My biggest takeaway is that risk management at a time of big opportunities is going to be where it’s at this year for publishers, distributors, and retailers. How does that all add up? Check back at the end of 2026 for the answer.
Source: ICv2
